US President Donald Trump has cut legal immigration from Muslim-majority countries by 96%, with the largest decline recorded among Afghans.
An analysis of State Department data by libertarian think tank the Cato Institute shows that monthly immigrant visa issuances and permanent lawful refugee admissions fell from 21,096 in December 2024 to just 808 in February this year.
Refugee resettlement was completely ended, dropping from 5,157 admissions the month after Trump was elected for a second time to zero in February 2026, thanks to a presidential determination allocating the vast majority of refugee admissions to White South Africans.
Afghan immigrant visa and refugee admissions went from 5,563 to just nine, a decline of 99.8%. The second-worst affected were Pakistanis, with admissions falling 97.9% from 3,026 to 63 over the same period.
David J. Bier, Director of Immigration Studies at the Cato Institute, said this week that if the current pace continues, the 2026 financial year would see the US take the fewest immigrants and refugees from the world’s 45 Muslim-majority countries in at least 30 years.
“If the February 2026 levels continue for the rest of the fiscal year (and they have for refugees, but we don’t yet have data on immigrant visa issuances), then only about 40,000 immigrants and refugees from these countries will have immigrated that year,” he said.
“This would be down nearly 80% from 2024 and even about 30% lower than 2020, when the first Trump administration used the pandemic as an excuse to cut off legal immigration. If the 2024 level had continued, another 180,000 immigrants and refugees could have come legally in 2025 and 2026.”
Mr Bier also noted that Trump repeatedly proposed closing the border to Muslims during his 2016 presidential campaign, resulting in his controversial travel ban, and then in 2024 vowed to bring in even stricter restrictions in his first term.
“He has succeeded,” Mr Bier said.
The Cato Institute analysis found that a series of immigration restrictions introduced by the Trump administration had resulted in a drastic collapse in legal immigration that disproportionately affected Muslim-majority countries, with immigration for other nations falling by 36%.
The restrictions include the South African refugee decision, a presidential proclamation that suspended refugee admissions in January 2025, another indefinitely barring immigrants from 40 countries in December 2025, a memorandum applying the ban to US citizen petitioners inside the US, an immigrant visa pause for 75 countries in January 2026, the suspension of the diversity visa lottery program, and a State Department immigrant visa interview freeze in August.
Of the 45 Muslim-majority countries, 34 were specifically barred, and seven of the remaining 11 (Bahrain, Brunei, Djibouti, Indonesia, Malaysia, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tajikistan, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates) still saw immigrant visa issuances fall by 50% or more.
The Cato Institute previously found that Trump has cut legal immigration far more than illegal immigration since returning to the White House, reversing a trend of rising legal immigration between 2021 and 2024 under Joe Biden.
Header image: Left, Donald Trump at a 9/11 anniversary event (White House). Right, Afghan women in burqas (Pexels).
