Blame Israel for Trump’s midterms defeat

Electoral politics is fundamentally about selling narratives to the masses. For these narratives to be mass digestible, they need to be simple.

To know what is really happening in politics and build a strategy to take and use power, you need to grasp political reality beyond the simplicity of any mass marketable narrative. However, to get the electorate to vote how you want, you need to capture their sentiments within a simple narrative that supports your priorities and goals.

The reasons why the republicans just got smoked in the midterms are quite complex. But the solution to them must be simple, because the political consciousness of voters is simple, and one-dimensional repeatable narratives are the most effective to mass propagate.

This loss needs to be blamed entirely on Israel (and the Iran war in particular) by everyone with influence on the right. Many prominent conservative commentators are already doing this, and both the president and vice president have already basically conceded it. This narrative is a massive oversimplification – it’s only partially true at best – but it will open up the fastest path to re-building the populist right’s momentum.

One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was “composition”—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.

So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we’re going to shock the world? “No,” he told me. “We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us.”

Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.

There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.

But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.

Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:

1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel

Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)

In the next few months, there’s going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I’m open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.

The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.

If you’d like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that’s at least honest.

But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.

I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.

— JD Vance (@JDVance) November 4, 2026

To explain why this simplicity is what’s required, and why specifically the Zionist lobby must be scapegoated (scapegoats always usually kind of deserve it, even if it isn’t all their fault) we need to zoom out and examine the strategic state of play.

In my article last week I explained why turning on Trump now is stupid for the right – due to the massive and underappreciated actions his administration has taken against both illegal and especially legal immigration. Nothing matters more than immigration policy. Without stopping and reversing White replacement, the right will become electorally incapable of resisting the left’s agenda – which will collapse our civilisation if allowed to prevail for another generation.

But whilst opposition to immigration is a primary motivator for the populist right base, it isn’t as important to voters as it should be. Opposition to legal immigration is literally at an all-time low in America right now. The Trump administration’s drastic cuts to legal immigration are not popular, which is why they haven’t been talking about them that much, and if you didn’t read my article last week you probably didn’t even know yourself how extensive they are.

But even the narrative that the Republicans were creamed because they “didn’t deport enough illegals” is false. In fact, one in four Trump voters polled perceive the mass deportations campaign as “too aggressive”.

According to CNN exit polling, only 36% of voters said immigration enforcement policy was crucial to their vote, and of this cohort only 57% of them voted Republican.

Meanwhile 55% said corruption was crucial to their vote, 63% of them voting Democrat. And 49% said the cost of living was crucial to their vote, 66% of them voting Democrat.

These economic concerns also beat out the Iran War which only 34% said was crucial to their vote, 72% of which voted Democrat.

So, the reality is that in the minds of voters it appears that economic dissatisfaction was the primary issue in this election. Within mass democracy, short-term economic management is a prerequisite for the electorate to go along with your social agenda. Nothing matters more to the simpleton median voter than cheap access to consumer goods.

And there is nothing that will piss off the masses who feel like the economy isn’t working for them than the perception that the people in power are enriching themselves at their expense.

Trump’s approval rating started to nosedive long before the Iran War, immediately after he announced his tariffs (somewhat unfairly in my opinion, but voters are myopic). The median votetard will put up with “woke” excesses like transgenderism from a left-wing government, or the “racism” of mass deportations from a right-wing government, so long as you keep inflation and unemployment low.

But if the economy turns on them, they will turn on you.

And once they turn on you, they will blame you even for things that aren’t entirely your fault, and every unpopular thing you do will only be amplified.

And it was in this PR environment in which Trump expected the public to eat the botched attempt to bury the Epstein files, and a litany of dodgy business activities enriching Trump and his family.

The massive gains made with Hispanic voters in 2024 were also undone by their disapproval of ICE’s mass deportations campaign on their hombres, even though it’s what they voted for. By the time Trump invaded Iran, his approval rating had already fallen significantly more from when he was re-elected than it has since.

So why am I saying this should all be blamed on the Israel lobby and the Iran war then?

Well, like I said at the beginning of this article, a simple narrative is needed here that seems plausible, comprehensive and emotionally engaging enough for people to buy into.

A narrative that recaptures the populist allure of sticking it to powerful corrupt elites. A narrative that wins back the disaffected young right-wing base who swung the hardest against the GOP of any demographic this election (literally by over 30% from 2024) because they don’t worship Israel like Fox News boomers, but in fact deeply resent it as a parasitic entity. A narrative that pins the blame for inflation on a solvable issue like the choked-up Strait of Hormuz. A narrative that enables the scandals of Epstein and Kushner to be pinned on a widely hated foreign influence network that is now being cast aside. A narrative that can unite the conservative media celebrities that have collectively freed themselves to speak their mind against Israel in a way that was professional suicide before the mass adoption of social media.

This seemed like a political impossibility just a few years ago. But since October 7th, 2023, Israel has become basically universally despised by everyone under the age of 50. And for most people, this isn’t bound up with some victim-boner for Palestine like the radical left has, but is more simply a reaction to the blatant power and influence of Zionists over the American political process. All in support of a Zionist agenda which offers no real benefit to the United States, but is an increasingly naked power rooted in manipulation and corruption.

Only attacking Zionist influence will enable populist authenticity to return to the right, only Zionist influence is a comprehensive enough phenomenon to be plausibly blamed for the sense of squandered promise and being rug-pulled by Trump.

If the core aspect of “Trumpism” that matters, immigration restriction, is going to be salvaged, and the right is going to hold onto power – it will need to pair this with a critique of Zionist influence in order to rebuild a winning coalition in 2028. Unfortunately, immigration isn’t an important enough issue to Americans to carry an election on its own. Many other core issues which are, however, just as salient to voters – inflation, corruption, foreign entanglements that don’t serve the national interest – can be pinned on the Zionist influence which caused the Iran War.

A Republican presidential candidate who criticises the influence of the Israel lobby would also have strategic flow-on effects that disrupt the Democrats. The Israel lobby will rally behind a moderate Democrat if they lose the Republicans. This will hand the hot potato to the other side, which will either neutralise the issue if they have a moderate presidential candidate, or help fuel the rise of a more radical anti-Zionist candidate who will be extremely woke and alienate swing voters.

Failing this drastic pivot, I don’t see how a 2028 Republican presidential nominee can meaningfully distinguish himself from the things voters have so forcefully rejected about Trump, whilst energising the youth and the base generally. If the Democrats take the presidency in 2028, however, America’s fate of becoming a majority-minority country will be likely sealed. The electoral viability, and even basic political will, to again attempt the immigration restriction and enforcement of this administration may never return.

Unlike in past election cycles, tech elites and online influencers now have enough resources to bankroll and promote candidates without dependence upon legacy Zionist donors and media companies. If the likes of Elon Musk want to remain in control of America’s destiny, rather than being crushed by Woke 2.0 bureaucrats, backing a populist candidate that will scapegoat the Israel lobby might in fact be the only option left on the table.

This is a lesson also to populists in Australia and Britain.

In our countries, immigration restriction is more salient with voters than it is in America, but Israel is even more despised. Reform took a significant hit when Farage backed the Iran War earlier this year, a hit they have never recovered from. One Nation took a similar hit at the time for supporting the war, which I wrote about earlier this year, and they’ve since managed to recover largely because they’ve shut up about it.

Make no mistake though, there are plenty of voters who like the immigration restriction of One Nation, but won’t vote for it because they perceive it as a Zionist party. And if the Republicans are about to have an internal slap fight about this issue in the next couple of years as they try to move on from Trump, this will only bleed into the right-wing discourse and attitudes of Australians and become an even bigger problem for them if they aren’t careful.

The association with Zionism is a millstone around the neck of right-wing populism. And we simply cannot afford as a race or civilisation in this late hour for right-wing populism to fail. White replacement must halt, free speech must be restored, and the increasingly tyrannical left must be jettisoned from state power. But to get enough goyim to vote for parties which will do this, we can’t afford to carry wildly unpopular foreign policy hang-ups that almost three decades of wars for Israel have spoiled.

And frankly, whilst I don’t think the war in Iran is as big of a deal in practical terms as many are making out, it has been a serious diversion of resources from anti-Chinese deterrence, significantly depleting vital munitions stocks that will take years to replenish. And it has blatantly been a war for Israel, which does nothing for the American national interest, simply because Zionist donors put Trump back in the White House. The Trump administration needs to take the L, broker a peace deal to get the oil flowing, and move on ASAP so voters can start forgetting about it.

If the Zionists know what’s good for them, they will accept this recalibration of the right with subtlety and grace. A moderate turn against the Israel lobby, the US getting out and staying out of the Middle East, and the marginalisation of hysterics about “anti-Semitism” will get Israel out of the headlines and out of most people’s concern. Zionists can go back under the radar, and work on more clandestine forms of parasitism that are too covert for it to be a major political issue.

AIPAC ending endorsements and candidate funding is a good start. As is ending foreign aid to Israel. But ultimately, I think these people are too ethno-narcissistic to take their recent wins and shut the hell up. They have the chutzpah and sense of entitlement to never stop pushing for more.

So, they will likely have to be put in their place, and fast, because the alternative is the radical left seizing the world superpower and potentially irreversibly sabotaging Western civilisation. And if we go down, Israel will go down with us, and it will be their own fault.

But if we don’t put them in their place, they will take us down with them, and it will be our own fault.

Header image: Donald Trump pulls a chair out for Benjamin Netanyahu (Channel 8)