Sweden’s left-wing opposition holds a narrow election lead over the centre-right government, thanks to overwhelming support from voters with a non-European background, many of whom were recently given citizenship.
Preliminary results show the leftist “red-green” bloc poised to win 176 seats to the right’s 173, and while early votes and overseas ballots are due to be counted on Wednesday they are not expected to give the right-leaning Tido bloc a majority.
A large exit poll by national broadcaster SVT found that 70% of voters of non-European descent backed one of the four left-wing parties, while just 27% voted for the three governing parties. About 18% of eligible voters were foreign-born, up from 15% at the 2022 election.
The phenomenon was evident in areas with large foreign populations, such as in the Rosengard Centrum district in the immigrant crime-ravaged city of Malmo, where two left-wing parties alone, the Left party and the Social Democrats, are sitting on a combined 95.2% of the vote.
SVT reported on Monday that just 28,800 votes separated the left- and right-wing voting blocs, meaning that the governing Tido parties may have sealed their own fate by granting citizenship to about 200,000 people during the last parliamentary term, most from outside of Europe.
Jimmie Akesson, the leader of the right-wing Sweden Democrats, warned before the election that Muslim voters alone could decide the outcome, following a pre-election survey by Novus also found that 85% of Muslims planned to vote for left-wing parties.
Sweden, SVT Valu exit poll:
Non-European background, national parliament election
S (S&D): 38% (-2.0)
V (LEFT): 21% (+4.0)
M (EPP): 12%
SD (ECR): 10% (-2.0)
MP (Greens/EFA): 7% (+3.0)
C (RE): 4% (-3.0)
KD (EPP): 3%
L (RE): 2%+/- vs. Last election result
— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) September 13, 2026
The left wing won the recent election in Sweden because of the Muslim immigrant votes. They would have lost decisively without this.
Muslims receive very generous welfare in Sweden, and are of course interested in voting for even more welfare money for themselves. pic.twitter.com/s6TWqwhyY2
— Jonatan Pallesen (@jonatanpallesen) September 15, 2026
A data analysis conducted by 100% on Monday found that just 40,000 Muslim voters would have been needed to create the current margin, out of an estimated 210,000 Muslims who are eligible.
If the results hold the left-wing opposition may still struggle to form government, and the Social Democrats, led by Magdalena Andersson, won just 28.1% of the vote, down from 30.3% in 2022.
The Sweden Democrats fell 2.9 points to 17.6%, while major governing party the Moderates won 19.9% of the vote, up from 19.1% at the last election
Niklas Bohlin, political scientist at the Mid-Sweden University, told Reuters that a left-wing government was unlikely to bring back the open borders immigration policies Sweden was once known for, due to broad public concern over immigration and crime.
“I believe the broader shift towards a stricter Swedish migration policy is, for the most part, here to stay,” he said.
Header image: Sweden Democrats leader Magdalena Andersson (Facebook).
