One Nation has claimed victory in the safe Labor seat of Secret Harbour in a Western Australian state by-election that is being widely seen as a referendum on mass immigration and Pauline Hanson’s popularity.
State leader Rod Caddies declared Luke Herdegen was “the new member for Secret Harbour” at about 9.30pm local time, with the One Nation candidate leading Labor’s Georgia Tree 54% to 46% on preferences.
“The people of Secret Harbour have sent a message that will send shockwaves around the country,” Mr Herdegen told a crowd of jubilant supporters in Perth’s south
“No seat is safe from the orange tsunami. The days of WA Labor having a stranglehold on the outer southern suburbs is over. There are no safe Labor seats in this state, or in this country anymore.”
Labor is yet to concede and counting is still underway.
Early results showed Mr Herdegen with a healthy lead over Ms Tree thanks to a swing of almost 28% to One Nation, and state Liberal leader Basil Zempilas conceded his party was out of the running with his candidate Ryan Robertson winning less than 18% of the primary vote despite a massive campaign.
Secret Harbour overlaps the federal seat of Canning, which is held by embattled Liberal MP Andrew Hastie, who has has been targeted by One Nation over his betrayal of SAS comrade Ben Roberts-Smith.
Mr Hastie praised Mr Robertson, a Navy veteran, this week, but Liberals running the campaign told The Nightly he had not been seen in the electorate since August 1, and insiders believe he kept his distance to minimise personal blame in the event of a One Nation win.
#GoLuke #FireTheLiar #SecretHarbour pic.twitter.com/vBE4Uhqmq4
— Pauline Hanson 🇦🇺 (@PaulineHansonOz) August 29, 2026
Ms Hanson shared a photo of herself cheering at a TV screen showing a massive swing to One Nation, and told News24 earlier in the night the early results showed voters were upset with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and the major parties.
“This is a clear message to Anthony Albanese,” she said.
“It’s cost of living, everything. People are worried about the future, if their kids can own a home, the cost of groceries has gone up.
“People are turning to One Nation hoping, and it’s all about hope. They want hope. We’re really out there winning seats.”
Mr Herdegen won about 36% of the primary vote, followed by Ms Tree with 25%, and The Greens won about 8% of the primary vote to become the fourth popular party. Legalise Cannabis won 4.2%, and Animal Justice won 2.2%.
Professor John Phillimore, director of the John Curtin Institute for Public Policy, told ABC News ahead of the by-election that it would be a test for Pauline Hanson’s party that could have major ramifications for Victoria’s November state election.
“From a Labor point of view, if the outer suburbs of Perth start falling to One Nation, that might ring some alarm bells in Victoria,” he said.
“For the Liberals, it is a big issue for them, these outer suburban areas are traditional swinging seat territory where if a government is going to fall, the opposition picks up those seats.
“In Victoria, is the opposition picking up those seats going to be the Liberal Party or One Nation?”
Right-wing social media commentators welcomed the results, and said they showed everyday Australians have had enough of record-high immigration levels.
“Every election is an immigration election now. Patriots are taking our country back. Nothing can stop what’s coming,” wrote Australian Lobby Group founder Scott Challen.
“Labor held the WA State Electorate of Secret Harbour by a margin of 12.6% in two party preferred terms. ~60% of Labor’s seats held federally have a margin of less than that. I wonder if net migration at 130k becomes the ‘moderate’ position,” wrote Macrobusiness columnist Tarric Brooker.
The results came despite anger at One Nation for an immigration policy shift away from net negative overseas migration to a net intake of 130,000 a year, which revealed by MP David Farley last weekend and confirmed by Ms Hanson afterwards and during the week.
Header image: Left, Luke Herdegen claiming victory (News24). Right, with supporters (One Nation).
