One Nation is just two points behind Labor in Victoria after a massive 20.7% swing since the last election, with crime now the biggest issue, a shock new poll shows.
The DemosAU/PremierNational Victorian state poll, conducted between February 1 and 10, has Pauline Hanson’s party on 21% of the vote, trailing Labor on 23% and the Coalition on 29%. The Greens are on 15%, other parties are on 12%, and 5% are undecided.
Labor is down 13.7% since the last election, the Coalition is down 5.5%, the Greens are up 3.5%, and other parties are down 5%, with almost all of the votes flowing to One Nation, which is planning to run candidates in every lower house seat in the November state election.
New Liberal leader Jess Wilson is ahead of Premier Jacinta Allan as preferred premier by 40% to 31%.
Crime and violence was the number one issue for 30% of voters, followed by cost of living on 29%, housing affordability on 12%, and immigration on 5%.
By age, just 9% of the 18-34 age bracket support One Nation, rising to 23% for voters aged 35-54, and 26% for those 55 and older.
DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said a change of government is likely if the poll results are replicated in November, with One Nation holding the balance of power.
“In Victoria we see a government on the nose and a struggling Liberal party brand federally, resulting in many voters sending their vote to One Nation. Whether this is a permanent shift or voters are merely parking their vote remains to be seen,” he said.
“With 20% of the vote, we can expect to see One Nation winning seats, especially as their vote is concentrated in regional areas, where they are outpolling both major parties.
“So we could expect them to have a chance to win some regional and rural seats. How many One Nation would win depends on preference flows and which major party runs third in any given seat.”
One Nation’s only Victorian MP, Rikkie-Lee Tyrrell, who last year disavowed the party’s anti-immigration billboards, told the Herald Sun the poll results were consistent with a “groundswell of support” from her constituents.
“People are sick of being ignored by the major parties, being promised one thing and being delivered another or nothing at all. One Nation has been consistent in our direction and people know what they are getting when voting for us,” she said.
One Nation state executive president, Warren Pickering, said issues like Labor’s undemocratic treaty with aboriginal people and union corruption were factors in the rising support for his party.
“Things like these are really making Victorians pay attention to broader political issues and placing them in context in their daily lives,” he said.
The poll surge comes after One Nation’s Victorian branch state secretary Bianca Colecchia was attacked by the ABC for a popular video she made on New Year’s Eve in Melbourne asking viewers to “spot the Westerner”.
The Instagram video called Melbourne’s CBD unrecognisable, and attracted thousands of likes and hundreds of supportive comments, but the national broadcaster found five multiculturalism and mass immigration advocates to go on record condemning her.
Ms Colecchia responded by saying if it was “harmful” to show “such an objective fact as demographic change in Melbourne”, it could mean there was “something uncomfortable that needs discussing”, and said migration from “culturally incompatible” countries “without integration and assimilation has consequences”.
Header image: Left, Ms Hanson and Ms Collechia. Right, Ms Allan at a homosexual parade (Facebook).
