One Nation has overtaken Labor in Victoria for the first time, and is winning 24% of the vote in South Australia just four weeks out from the state election, according to two new polls.
A Roy Morgan survey conducted between February 13 and 16 put One Nation on 26.5% of the primary vote in Victoria, 1% ahead of Labor, and 5% ahead of the Coalition, with the Greens on 13.5% and other parties on 13%.
A Newspoll from February 11 to 17 of South Australian voters had Labor well in front on 44% of the primary vote, followed by Pauline Hanson’s party on 24%, the Liberals on 14%, the Greens on 12%, and other parties on 6%.
The Liberal primary vote in South Australia is 21.7% lower than at the 2022 election, and the party faces losing all of its 13 seats if the results at replicated when the state goes to the polls on March 21.
It would also ensure former Liberal senator turned One Nation recruit Cory Bernardi and state president Carlos Quaremba both take upper house seats.
We have made history.
We are standing up for a fair go for Victorians, demanding a government that’s clean and accountable, and pushing for real change.
Let’s keep up momentum and take Victoria back! https://t.co/ck5KZSZhvs
— One Nation Victoria (@OneNationVic) February 19, 2026
ONE NATION VICTORIA WILL REPEAL THE (divisive) TREATY LEGISLATION.
Treaty divides our state – and transfers wealth – on the basis of race.
We want to see a Victoria that moves forward together as a united community. pic.twitter.com/9upkRiqN6d
— One Nation Victoria (@OneNationVic) February 18, 2026
In Victoria a replication of the poll results at the November state election would likely result in a hung parliament, Roy Morgan said on Wednesday, with the polls also showing Labor head of the Coalition 52-48 and One Nation 52.5-47.5 on a two-party preferred basis.
On a three-party preferred basis Labor widens its lead on 44.5% compared to One Nation on 29.5% and the Coalition on 26%.
“We have made history. We are standing up for a fair go for Victorians, demanding a government that’s clean and accountable, and pushing for real change. Let’s keep up momentum and take Victoria back!” One Nation Victoria said in response to the poll.
One Nation Victoria also said on Wednesday it would repeal Premier Jacinta Allan’s undemocratic treaty with aboriginal people, saying it “divides the state – and transfers wealth – on the basis of race”.
Last week a DemosAU poll put One Nation just two points behind Labor in Victoria, with crime now the number one issue in the state.
Days before that a federal Newspoll showed One Nation winning 27% of the primary vote, behind Labor on 33%.
Header image: Left, Pauline Hanson campaigning last year. Right, Jacinta Allan addresses an aboriginal group (Facebook).
