One Nation is surging in popularity on Sydney’s Northern Beaches as young people flock to Pauline Hanson’s party amid growing concerns about mass immigration, a new poll shows.
The poll, conducted by uComms for The Australia Institute in the federal seat of Mackellar last week, found One Nation is by far the most popular party among those aged 18 to 34 with 26.9% of the primary vote, followed by the Liberal Party on 18.8%.
The local MP, “teal” independent Dr Sophie Scamps, is still in front overall on 30.7%, followed by the Liberals on 22.2%, and One Nation on 20.6%. There is also a large gender gap, with men preferring One Nation 24.3% to 17.2%, and women favouring Dr Scamps 35.3% to 25.7%.
Before Dr Scamps was elected in 2022 Mackellar was continuously held by the Liberal Party, and was once considered a “blue-ribbon” seat.
The Northern Beaches is one of the few areas of Sydney where White Australians are still a large majority, and a local resident told Noticer News changing demographics at the beach this summer along with rising crime could be behind the vote shift.
Identical polls conducted in two other teal-held seats – Kooyong in Melbourne’s inner-east held by Dr Monique Ryan, and Wentworth in Sydney’s eastern suburbs held by Allegra Spender – also showed a massive increase in One Nation support propelled by the youngest demographic.
In Wentworth, One Nation is polling lower than in Mackellar overall on 15.7% behind Ms Spender and the Liberals, but it is winning 30.4% of the 18-34 age group.
In Kooyong, Pauline Hanson’s party is on 12.5% overall but still in third place, and is the most popular party among the youngest demographic on 24.3% of the primary vote.
During the 2025 federal election One Nation won 2.53% of the vote in Mackellar, 2.38% in Wentworth, and 1.05% in Kooyong.
The poll was conducted just days before the South Australian state election, where One Nation enjoyed a massive swing and won more than 22% of the vote.
One lower house seat has been called for One Nation, which leads in three more with counting still underway at the time of writing. One Nation is also on track to win three upper house seats, which will go to state leader Cory Bernardi, Carlos Quaremba and Rebecca Hewitt.
Another poll published last week found 79% of Australians want a major immigration cut, and 60% say the country has “too many migrants”.
Header image: Left, Pauline Hanson with daughter Lee (Facebook). Right, part of the seat of Mackellar (By Alex Proimos – Flickr, CC BY 2.0, Link).
