One Nation is winning 26% of the primary vote, putting it seven points ahead of the former Coalition and just eight behind Labor, according to a major new poll.
The Redbridge Group/Accent Research survey conducted between January 22 and 29 for the Australian Financial Review had Labor on 34% of the primary vote, down 1%, One Nation up 9%, the Coalition down 7% to 19%, the Greens down 2% to 11%, and other parties on 10%, up one point.
One Nation is now the most popular party among Gen X voters and two points ahead of Labor on 35%, while both parties are neck on neck on 35% among Baby Boomers, who give the Greens just 1% of the primary vote.
Among Millennials Labor leads with 33% of the primary vote, followed by the Coalition on 23%, One Nation on 18%, the Greens on 17% and other on 9%. For Gen Z, Labor leads on 34%, followed by the Greens on 26%, the Coalition on 15%, other parties on a combined 14%, and One Nation on just 11%.
On the key issues, the poll found One Nation was seen as the best party to deal with immigration, Labor best on cost of living, healthcare, and housing affordability, the Coalition best on national security, and the Greens best able to handle climate change.
The Right’s structural realignment in Australia is here and the numbers are brutal.
Our latest AFR (Australian Financial Review) / RedBridge Accent poll shows the former conservative bloc has shrunk into a political rump, while One Nation has surged into the dominant force on… pic.twitter.com/igx3b9JGl3
— Kos Samaras (@KosSamaras) February 1, 2026
On a two-party preferred basis Labor leads the Coalition 55 to 44, with no model to compare Labor and One Nation.
Anthony Albanese leads Sussan Ley as preferred Prime Minister 37 points to 9, with 34% saying neither, 12% unsure, and 8% rating both the same.
Ms Ley’s net favourability rating has crashed to -32, far worse than Pauline Hanson on -3 and Mr Albanese on -10. Likely Liberal leadership challenger Angus Taylor has a net favourability rating of -4, but 35% of voters have never heard of him.
The poll came after Ms Hanson and her party strongly opposed Labor’s “hate speech” and gun law reforms, while the Coalition helped them pass, resulting in the Nationals splitting from the Liberals.
Redbridge director Tony Barry said the worst might be yet to come for the Liberals and Nationals, and warned there might be no coming back for the former Coalition partners.
“The problem for the Liberal and National parties is we still don’t know where the bottom is for their vote and where One Nation’s ceiling is,” he said.
“What we don’t know yet is how much of One Nation’s vote is protest or power. But if the Liberal and National parties keep accumulating scar tissue and don’t change the story arc, it might be unsalvageable.”
Header image: Left, Pauline Hanson with supporters on Australia Day. Right, Sussan Ley after making her hate speech deal with Labor (Facebook).
