The Coalition has hit a record low primary vote of 24% while leader Sussan Ley’s approval rating continues to nosedive and One Nation attracts historic levels of support, a new poll shows.
According to the latest Newspoll, Pauline Hanson’s party is now just nine points behind the Coalition with a primary vote share of 15%, the same figure recorded by an Essential poll last week.
Labor fell one point over the past month to 36%, putting the combined major party primary vote at the lowest level since Newspoll began asking the question in 1985.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s approval rating entered negative territory for the first time since the May federal election, but is still 28% above Ms Ley’s -33%. The far-left Greens also fell one point to 11%, all other parties are on 14% and on a two-party preferred basis Labor leads the Coalition 57% to 43%.
Senior Liberal Party sources said Ms Ley’s supporters believe the loss of voter share to One Nation due to discontent over immigration is temporary and will not last until the 2028 election, and revealed she is prepared to split from the Nationals after they announced on Sunday they were abandoning support for “net zero”.
Another new poll by Freshwater Strategy found that concerns about immigration have doubled over the past 20 months, and are now seen as one of the most important issues for the federal government to focus on by 22% of voters, up from 11% in February 2024.
The cost and standard of living was listed by 68% of voters, followed by housing and accommodation on 41%, crime and social order on 29%, and health and social care on 26%.
Freshwater director Dr Mike Turner said One Nation’s rising popularity mirrored discontent in the electorate about immigration, which he said was linked to the issues of housing and crime.
“This has no doubt been driven by rising concern about immigration, which has surged in recent months,” he said.
“Australia doesn’t have a border problem … so what’s driving [immigration concerns] clearly lies elsewhere. Concern about housing availability and affordability has typically been a major factor, as has rising crime and societal division.”
Voters began abandoning the Coalition after Ms Ley scrapped pre-election promises to cut permanent migration, while at the same time One Nation has been talking tough on the issue, with Senator Malcolm Roberts calling for remigration and mass deportations in September.
A 6News projection from a Roy Morgan poll last week found One Nation would make the two-candidate preferred count in 12 lower house seats, and win the LNP-held seat of Wright in Queensland.
On a state-by-state basis, Roy Morgan’s poll from September 22 to October 19 had One Nation at 15% in Queensland and South Australia, 12% in NSW, 11.5% in WA, 10% in Tasmania, and 9% in Victoria.
Redbridge pollster Kos Samaras told the ABC last month the surge in One Nation support was mainly triggered by Gen Xers without university degrees who are “renting or who have a mortgage and are feeling financial pain”, while 39% of One Nation’s supporter base were Baby Boomers, and just 7% were Gen Z.
Header image: Left, Ms Ley at a Diwali event in Brisbane this month. Right, Ms Hanson at a March for Australia rally in Canberra on August 31 (Facebook).
