The Albanese Labor government has exceeded its migration forecast for the third year in a row, and immigrant arrivals for the year so far are at record-high levels.
Official data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Thursday showed there were 279,460 net permanent and long-term arrivals in the year to June 2025 (January 1 to June 30), higher than the previous record set last year.
For the financial year there were 457,650 net permanent and long-term arrivals, about 8,000 fewer than the 2023-24 financial year’s record total of 469,140, and 122,560 (37%) higher than the government’s net overseas migration forecast of 335,000.
Despite repeatedly revising its migration forecasts Labor has surpassed its targets every year since forming government in 2022 – underestimating actual net overseas migration by 351,383 over the three-year period, research by the Institute of Public Affairs (IPA) shows.
The ABS defines permanent arrivals as travellers who arrive on permanent migrant visas for the first time, New Zealand citizens who indicate for the first time an intention to migrate permanently, and those otherwise eligible to settle, such as the overseas-born children of Australian citizens.
Long-term arrivals are defined as overseas visitors who intend to stay in Australia for more than 12 months, but not permanently.
Net oversea migration figures for the financial year are yet to be released by the ABS, and while it will differ slightly from net permanent and long-term arrivals the latter can act as an estimate proxy.
Daniel Wild, IPA Deputy Executive Director, said record immigration levels were “placing immense pressure on our economic and social infrastructure” despite repeated promises to cut arrivals.
“Excessive migration has pummelled Australia’s economic productivity, which led to an extended period of negative per capita economic growth. It is also exacerbating a housing crisis that is being experienced by Australians and new migrants alike,” Mr Wild said.
“Over the last 25 years, Australia’s population growth has exceeded the population growth of comparable Anglophone nations, namely: New Zealand, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
“Net overseas migration has contributed to about 80% of Australia’s overall population growth since the end of the pandemic, dwarfing the share of natural population increase. This is unsustainable.”
The figures come after Labor revealed it was setting an international student cap for 2026 which will provide an extra 25,000 places, despite Australia’s housing and rental crisis.
A Reserve Bank report published at the end of July found that international students were putting upward pressures on rental demand and rents, noting that for every 50,000 increase in population private rents are expected to increase by about 0.5%.
Header image: Left, right, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese at a citizenship ceremony this week (Facebook).
